The Economic Fallout of the Strait of Hormuz

April 23, 2026

Happy Thursday! Sony AI’s robotic challenger Ace has become the first machine to outplay professional table-tennis players. Economists warn that the global professional ping-pong workforce could shrink to nearly nothing—already nearly nothing—if automation continues to advance at the current pace.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

Iran Seizes Two Ships

On Wednesday, Iran intercepted two vessels attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz—a Liberian-flagged cargo ship and a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship—charging them with breaches of maritime law, mere hours after launching strikes against both boats.

A Greek-owned, Panamanian-flagged vessel was also attacked, which, according to regime-linked Iranian media, is now “stranded on Iranian shores.” While White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News on Wednesday that Iran’s seizure of the two ships was an act of “piracy,” she noted that the administration does not view it as a breach of its ceasefire agreement, which Trump extended one day earlier, because the vessels were neither American nor Israeli. “These were two international vessels,” Leavitt said, criticizing “the American media” for “sort of blowing this out of proportion.” Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the U.S. intercepted three Iranian-flagged tankers, all of which were either partially or fully loaded with crude oil, in waters near India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka and redirected them out of the area. To learn more about the economic impacts of the Strait’s closure, keep reading today’s TMD.

  • The Times of London reported that Ukraine is preparing to deploy four mine-clearing vessels for a mission jointly led by the U.K. and France to clear all underwater explosive devices planted in the Strait of Hormuz, once the ongoing fighting ends.
  • The Washington Post reported that a senior Defense Department official informed members of the House Armed Services Committee in a classified briefing that it could take six months to clear the passage of Iranian-planted mines.
  • Trump—one day after posting on Truth Social that he would “greatly appreciate” if the Iranian regime released eight female prisoners purportedly scheduled for execution—posted that Iran agreed to release four of them and gave the other four a one-month prison sentence. Iranian state-run media claimed Trump was “fabricating achievements from false news.”

Trump to Bail Out Spirit Airlines

On Wednesday, outlets reported that the Trump administration is closing in on a plan to provide Spirit Airlines with a loan of as much as $500 million to prevent liquidation, though no formal agreement has been signed. Spirit filed for its second Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in under a year in August. In exchange for the loan, Spirit would hand over warrants to the federal government, which could later be exercised to acquire an ownership stake in the airline—potentially up to 90 percent, according to Bloomberg. Negotiations are led by the Commerce Department, with involvement from the Transportation Department, though Bloomberg noted substantial internal disagreement within the administration. “Spirit Airlines would be on a much firmer financial footing had the Biden administration not recklessly blocked the airline’s merger with JetBlue,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said on Wednesday.

  • In 2022, Spirit entered into a $3.8 billion merger deal with JetBlue, but the Justice Department—backed by six states and Washington, D.C.—sued to block the arrangement, a federal judge blocked it in 2024, ruling that it would harm budget-conscious travelers who rely on Spirit’s low fares.
  • The Council on Foreign Relations notes that the Trump administration has announced 15 deals worth $20.9 billion in equity stakes in private-sector companies since January 2025, marking the largest U.S. government push into strategic industries since World War II.
  • Spirit declined to comment about the potential deal, but stated that its business operations are continuing “as normal.”

CDC Will Not Publish COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Report

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will not release the scientific findings of a report assessing the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines, which—according to the New York Times—would have shown that immunization reduced emergency department visits by 50 percent and hospitalizations by 55 percent. The findings were initially slated for release on March 19, but the Washington Post reported that Acting CDC Director Jay Bhattacharya postponed their publication after raising questions about the study’s methodology. However, the blocked report is said to have later gained approval through the agency’s standard scientific review process. A Health and Human Services Department official also told the Times that Bhattacharya met with the authors about possibly using a different methodological approach, which the authors declined.

  • While testifying before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee on Wednesday, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed that gains in hygiene and sanitation contributed more to the decline in infectious disease deaths in the 20th century than vaccines.
  • Committee Chairman Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Republican, told Kennedy that he had misattributed the CDC and Johns Hopkins University findings, and that the committee’s research shows that once vaccines became more widely accessible, they played a major role in reducing deaths from disease. “That’s the full context,” Cassidy told Kennedy.
  • Moderna announced on Tuesday that it has begun dosing participants in a Phase 3 trial of its H5 bird-flu vaccine, aiming to enroll roughly 4,000 healthy adults in the U.S. and the U.K.

EU Agrees to Ukraine Loan

European Union ambassadors, after a Brussels meeting on Wednesday, signed off on a 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine, moving member states toward finalizing the agreement via written procedure later today. The package also includes new sanctions on Russia. The EU had initially endorsed the loan in December, but Hungary’s government blocked it, accusing Ukraine of delaying repairs to the Druzhba pipeline so as to prevent Hungary and Slovakia from obtaining Russian oil. Ukrainian officials had stated at the time that the pipeline damages were caused by a Russian airstrike. On April 19, Orbán announced he would lift Hungary’s veto once the pipeline was restored. On Wednesday, Hungary confirmed the blockage had ended after the Ukrainian government and MOL—Hungary’s partly state-owned oil and gas company—announced the pipeline’s full repair.

  • Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková announced early this morning that Russian oil is again flowing to Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, resuming service at 2 a.m. after a three-month interruption.
  • On Wednesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Kazakh crude through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany would be cut off starting May 1, due to “technical possibilities.”

Hegseth Fires Secretary of the Navy

The Defense Department announced on Wednesday that Secretary of the Navy John Phelan will leave his post immediately, with reports indicating he was dismissed following several disagreements with senior Pentagon leadership, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The department did not disclose the reason for Phelan’s departure. Undersecretary of the Navy Hung Cao—a former Virginia Republican congressional candidate—will serve as acting secretary. Defense Department spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed Phelan’s exit in a tweet, adding that Hegseth and Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg were “grateful” for his service. Sources told the Wall Street Journal that Hegseth informed Phelan of his firing just “minutes” before Parnell’s tweet, and the New York Times reported that Hegseth and Feinberg had clashed with the Navy secretary in recent months over management style and personnel issues. For more on Hegseth’s actions against senior Pentagon officials, see the April 15 issue of TMD.

  • A congressional official told the New York Times that Feinberg had grown tired of Phelan’s oversight of a shipbuilding project, while other officials noted that Phelan had a tense relationship with Cao, who aligned more closely with Hegseth.
  • Earlier this month, Hegseth also dismissed three top Army leaders: Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, Army Chief of Chaplains Maj. Gen. William Green Jr., and the Transformation and Training Command head Gen. David Hodne.

Leaders in Tehran and Washington have each suggested at various moments that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened to maritime traffic. In practice, however, it remains largely blocked. The ongoing American port blockade on Iran, the unsettled ceasefire negotiations, and fresh Iranian attacks on passing vessels—three ships were struck by Iranian forces on Wednesday—have left the world’s most crucial energy chokepoint barely moving. Only vessels avoiding Iranian detection, or the 34 Iran-linked tankers that have slipped past U.S. forces, remain underway.

As things stand, crude prices stay substantially higher than before the February 28 strikes by American and Israeli forces against Iran, and even if the strait were to reopen promptly, prices likely won’t drop soon. When CNN asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright when Americans could expect gas to dip below $3 per gallon, his reply was, “I don’t know. That could happen later this year. It might not happen until next year.” With the price of oil stubbornly elevated, the spillover effects extend to refined jet fuel, fertilizers, and industrial gases like helium.

But what is the broader reach of sustained high oil costs across the global economy? And how long will it take for conditions to revert once the strait reopens?

Today’s Must-Read

In Other News

Today in America

  • The Justice Department reached a settlement with Nebraska to prevent undocumented immigrants from paying in-state tuition at public colleges, pending approval by a federal judge.
  • Georgia Congressmember Democratic Rep. David Scott, who has served since 2003 after a lengthy spell in the Georgia Legislature, died at the age of 80.
  • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is probing a near-miss at New York’s JFK Airport on Monday, where an American Airlines jet aborting its landing narrowly avoided colliding with an Air Canada plane preparing to touch down. The FAA is also examining another near-mincident at Nashville International Airport over the past weekend.
  • Online market Kalshi said it has barred three current candidates from using its platform, citing internal rules against “political insider trading.” The nominees include a sitting Minnesota state senator, a Texas Republican hopeful, and a Virginia independent candidate.
  • Trump asserted in a Truth Social post that the Virginia voters’ referendum for a Democratic-backed redistricting plan—narrowly passed by about three percentage points—was “RIGGED,” and that there was a massive “Mail In Ballot Drop!” during vote counting.
  • The Senate passed a $70 billion budget resolution early today to fund ICE and Border Patrol for three years via reconciliation.

Around the World

  • Iran executed Mehdi Farid, a former employee of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, on Wednesday on charges of spying for Israel, with the Tehran judiciary accusing him of attempting to compromise a sensitive defense network with USB-based malware on orders from Mossad operatives.
  • A French sergeant died from injuries sustained when armed militants in southern Lebanon—believed to be Hezbollah—attacked a United Nations peacekeeping team trying to remove an undetonated device in the region over the weekend. The ambush also killed another French soldier and wounded two others.
  • French-Algerian writer Kamel Daoud—resident in France—announced that an Algerian court sentenced him to three years in prison and fined him 5 million Algerian dinars ($38,000) for his novel Houris, set during the Algerian Civil War.
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry said it carried out a special operation against Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group based in West Africa, and successfully rescued two people—a Russian citizen and a Ukrainian national—whom terrorists had abducted in July 2024.
  • After Peruvian interim President Jose Balcazar paused a deal to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States until a new government takes office this summer, two Cabinet-level officials—Defense Minister Carlos Diaz and Foreign Minister Hugo de Zela—tendered their resignations.
  • Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te canceled a diplomatic trip to Eswatini after three Indian Ocean nations along the planned route—Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles—refused permission for his plane to pass through their airspace. Taiwan said the countries acted under “intense pressure from China.”

On the Money

  • Trump is reportedly weighing an extension of a 60-day pause on the Jones Act to allow non-U.S.-flagged ships and crews to move cargo between American ports.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a Senate hearing that he supports offering a currency swap with the United Arab Emirates, potentially carried out through either the Treasury or the Federal Reserve.
  • The Kochi prefecture in Japan will subsidize dating-app fees for residents, offering around 20,000 yen ($125) per person as part of a broader birth-rate initiative.
  • Missouri officials announced that the Kansas City Royals are partnering with Hallmark Cards to launch a $3 billion development project downtown, including a new stadium funded in part by public money.
  • Meta reportedly installed software on employees’ computers to monitor clicks, keystrokes, and cursor movements to train its AI systems.
  • Orbital Chenguang, a Chinese space data-center startup, secured 57.7 billion yuan ($8.4 billion) in credit lines from a dozen major Chinese banks to support a gigawatt-scale orbital data-center constellation by 2035.

Worth Your Time

  • “We Don’t Know What to Do About our Phones,” by Dispatch contributor Katherine Dee (Tablet)
  • Elisabeth Rosenthal reports that American hospitals, overwhelmed with demand and short on beds, have left patients waiting in emergency rooms for days. (The Atlantic)
  • The Economist breaks down the details of Trump’s deportation deal with African nations. (The Economist)
  • Ryan Bourne explains why Trump is still struggling to rein in inflation. (Washington Post)
  • Nate Silver demonstrates that following Virginia’s redistricting referendum, Democrats could emerge with additional seats coming out of the mid-decade partisan rearrangement. (Silver Bulletin)
  • Angela Chen and Clara Collier interview Jon Peterson, a scholar of the history of wargames and tabletop role-playing games. (Asterisk Magazine)

Presented Without Comment

The Independent: RFK Jr Says Trump Calculates Percentages Differently As He Defends Drug Claims

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:

“President Trump has a different way of calculating percentages … If you have a $600 drug and you reduce it to $10, that’s a 600% reduction.”

Also Presented Without Comment

Stomp: Man Who Thought His Rolex Was Fake Tried To Cheat Retailer in Deal; $89.8K Watch Was Genuine

Also Also Presented Without Comment

USA Today: Logan Gilbert Somehow Caught 108 mph Liner in His Jersey and It Wasn’t an Out

Let Us Know

Pilar Marrero

Political reporting is approached with a strong interest in power, institutions, and the decisions that shape public life. Coverage focuses on U.S. and international politics, with clear, readable analysis of the events that influence the global conversation. Particular attention is given to the links between local developments and worldwide political shifts.