California’s Crowded Gubernatorial Field

May 4, 2026

Happy Thursday! This week, a line of Londoners stretched across the city as they made their way to Kew Gardens to catch a whiff of the titan arum, the infamous “corpse flower,” which blooms for only about 48 hours every few years and exhales a smell reminiscent of rotting flesh.

That content would not have appeared otherwise.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

Hegseth, Caine Testify About Iran War

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine testified before the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, marking their first appearance before Congress since the onset of the Iran conflict. Hegseth asserted to lawmakers that “the biggest challenge, the biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless, feckless and defeatist words of congressional Democrats and some Republicans.” In contrast, Caine pledged to deliver clear, candid, nonpartisan military advice and to collaborate with civilian leadership to ensure the armed forces carry out the essential duties we must perform. During the hearing, acting Defense Department comptroller Jules Hurst informed the committee that, to date, the Iran war has cost the government roughly $25 billion.

  • When Democratic Rep. Chrissy Houlahan pressed Hegseth about his choice to discharge the recently retired Army chief of staff Gen. Randy George earlier this month, Hegseth replied that “new leadership” was necessary. For more detail on the firings, see the April 15 issue of TMD.
  • Axios reported that U.S. Central Command drafted a plan for a brief, sharp strike on Iranian targets to break the current impasse, yet President Donald Trump told the outlet that “the blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” and that he would persist with it until the Iranian regime agrees to return to negotiations and discuss limits on its nuclear program.
  • Trump and other senior administration officials reportedly met with executives in oil and commodities trading on Tuesday to discuss how to extend the blockade while minimizing the economic impact on Americans.

SCOTUS Strikes Down Louisiana Congressional Map

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court invalidated Louisiana’s congressional map—approved in 2024 and which added a second majority-black district—finding the newly drawn lines to be racially discriminatory and thus unconstitutional. Louisiana had initially adopted a 2022 redistricting plan featuring only one majority-black district, but a federal judge ruled that map likely violated the Voting Rights Act’s prohibition on racial discrimination in voting and ordered a replacement. Nonetheless, “non-African American” plaintiffs challenged the new map, arguing it violated the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause. Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the majority, noted that the judge who struck down the 2022 map did not order Louisiana to create a second majority-minority district, and that the state had “no compelling interest” to use race in drawing district lines. For more on the ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, see Amy Howe’s reporting at SCOTUSblog.

  • Justice Clarence Thomas wrote a concurrence, joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch, arguing that the Voting Rights Act’s prohibition on discrimination should “not regulate districting at all.”
  • Justice Elena Kagan, in a dissent joined by Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Sonia Sotomayor, warned that the majority’s decision could effectively shield “any districting scheme” from being deemed a Voting Rights Act violation by portraying it as race-neutral, even if the state’s aims are purely partisan.
  • Republican Gov. Jeff Landry reportedly told GOP House candidates that he plans to temporarily suspend the state’s May 16 primary in order to allow lawmakers to draft a new map.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve opted to keep the target range unchanged at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent on Wednesday, with four of the central bank’s 12 voting members dissenting—the largest split in any rate decision since October 1992. Three policymakers supported keeping rates but objected to language in the policy statement suggesting future easing, while Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee, voted for a 0.25 percentage point cut. In his final opening remarks as Fed chair, Jerome Powell noted that “inflation has moved up and is elevated,” driven by higher global oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and tariffs. Powell also congratulated his successor, Kevin Warsh, on advancing through the Senate Banking Committee in a party-line vote earlier that day.

  • Warsh’s nomination had been blocked by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who insisted on resolution of the Justice Department’s case against the Fed before moving forward.
  • Powell announced he would remain on the Fed’s board after his term as chair ends on May 15 “for a period of time, to be determined.” He can stay on the board until January 2028.

Tech Giants Beat Report Record Revenue and AI Spending

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft reported quarterly results on Wednesday, all surpassing Wall Street estimates for revenue and profit while continuing to boost capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Alphabet posted revenue of $109.9 billion, up 22 percent year over year, with Google Cloud growing 63 percent, and lifted its 2026 capex guidance to between $180 billion and $190 billion. Microsoft reported $82.9 billion in revenue, with Azure and other cloud services rising 40 percent year over year, and indicated a total capex of about $190 billion for the year. Amazon delivered net sales of $181.5 billion—$37.6 billion from AWS, its fastest cloud growth in 15 quarters, and $17.2 billion from its advertising business, up 24 percent year over year—against $44.2 billion in capital spending for the quarter. Meta posted $56.31 billion in revenue, up 33 percent year over year and its fastest growth since 2021, though it raised its full-year capex guidance by $10 billion to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion.

  • Combined 2026 AI infrastructure commitments from the four tech giants are now expected to exceed $700 billion.
  • Amazon’s overall operating margin stood at 13.1 percent, a figure CFO Brian Olsavsky described as the company’s “highest operating margin ever.”
  • Apple is slated to release its results on Thursday, with NVIDIA reporting later in May.

Russian-Speaker Reportedly Paid For Attempted Attacks on Britain’s Prime Minister

A British prosecutor told a court on Wednesday that three male suspects—now on trial for allegedly linked arson attacks in May 2025 on two residences and a vehicle used or owned by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer—had been “recruited, instructed and promised payment” by a Russia-linked online contact using the alias “El Money” through the Telegram platform. The 22-year-old Ukrainian national Roman Lavrynovych is accused of initiating all three fires, while 27-year-old Ukrainian-born Romanian Stanislav Carpiuc managed “planning and receiving payment,” according to prosecutors. Shortly after Lavrynovych allegedly carried out the arson attacks, the Russian-linked organizer urged him to “leave the city” and claimed he would send money. All three have denied involvement.

  • The third suspect, 35-year-old Ukrainian Petro Pochynok, was believed to have been recruited by Lavrynovych and did not communicate with the Russian-speaking organizer.
  • On Wednesday, German prosecutors announced police arrested a Kazakh-born man identified only as “Sergei K.,” suspected of spying on Germany’s military aid to Ukraine and sharing information with Russian intelligence officials.

Until a few weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell appeared to be the likely successor as California’s governor. He led in polls, had appeared on Jimmy Kimmel’s show, and was poised to secure major labor endorsements.

But on April 10, the San Francisco Chronicle reported sexual assault allegations from a former staffer, followed within hours by CNN’s reporting of three additional women describing misconduct, and a Beverly Hills woman publicly accusing Swalwell of a violent sexual encounter in a hotel in 2018. The Manhattan district attorney’s office opened a probe soon after. On April 12, Swalwell suspended his campaign, and on April 14 he resigned from Congress mere hours before his colleagues planned to vote on expulsions. Through his attorney, Swalwell “categorically and unequivocally” denied every allegation of sexual assault and misconduct, but apologized for unspecified “mistakes in judgment.”

His absence opened the field in the primary. Six Democrats and two Republicans were on a Pomona College debate stage Tuesday night, talking over one another and clashing with moderators trying to keep order. In the current moment, a Republican leads the polls—British-born former Fox News host Steve Hilton sitting at 17 percent—and while that may reflect a temporary blip, there is no clear frontrunner for California’s top office in this crowded race.

California employs a “jungle primary,” meaning the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to a runoff after the June 2 primary. In the three gubernatorial elections since the system began in 2012, a Republican has consistently moved on to the runoff—usually facing a popular Democratic incumbent—yet ultimately lost in the general election.

Thus, the contest now hinges on two unresolved threads: which Democrat can unify a fractured field, and whether any candidate can offer real solutions to the state’s broad challenges.

Today’s Must-Read

In Other News

Today in America

  • Former FBI Director James Comey surrendered to law enforcement and appeared in federal court after being indicted for posting a social media image of seashells spelling out “8647,” which prosecutors argued amounted to “threats to harm President Trump.” The judge allowed Comey to leave with no conditions of release.
  • In a narrow 215-211 vote, the House of Representatives passed a Republican-backed blueprint for a budget reconciliation bill that would provide an additional $70 billion for the Homeland Security Department’s immigration enforcement agencies.
  • Both the Florida House of Representatives and state Senate approved a mid-decade redistricting map that could potentially add four GOP congressional seats, just two days after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled the plan publicly.
  • During a call with Trump on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a temporary Ukraine ceasefire to coincide with Russia’s upcoming Victory Day holiday and offered to help arrange a uranium-enrichment deal with Iran. Trump publicly declined, saying he would rather see Moscow focus on ending its own war.
  • Orleans Parish Sheriff Susan Hutson was indicted by a Louisiana grand jury on 30 felony charges, including malfeasance in office, falsifying public records, and obstructing justice, following an investigation prompted by last year’s jailbreak involving 10 inmates.

Around the World

  • Two Jewish men were stabbed in an assault in a North London Jewish neighborhood, with officials treating the incident as a possible act of terrorism; police detained the 45-year-old suspect at the scene after he allegedly tried to stab law enforcement officials as well.
  • Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that the United States will contribute $100 million to fund repairs of the Chernobyl containment dome in northern Ukraine, damaged by a Russian drone strike.
  • British Royal Navy Chief Gen. Gwyn Jenkins announced a deal with nine other European nations to form a “multinational maritime force” intended to complement NATO.
  • About 500 British police officers raided properties belonging to a Shiite-derived religious sect, arresting six men and three women on suspicion of human trafficking, modern slavery, forced marriage, rape, and sexual assault.

On the Money

  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that all federal projects in Mexico would be restricted to purchasing steel “produced in Mexico.”
  • South Africa withdrew a draft AI policy proposal after releasing it for public comment, with Communications Minister Solly Malatsi confirming that the draft had incorrectly included AI-generated, fabricated references.
  • The U.S.-based neurotechnology firm Axoft tested its brain-implant device on 11 patients, including a Chinese national in Shanghai—the first time a U.S.-developed neural chip disclosed tests conducted in China.
  • Families of victims killed in February’s mass shooting in Tumbler Ridge, Canada, sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, claiming the company identified the shooter’s attack planning on ChatGPT eight months earlier but failed to alert authorities.
  • The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Georgia announced that Lester Jones, former senior vice president of finance for the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks, was sentenced to three years and five months in federal prison for embezzling roughly $3.7 million from the franchise.

Worth Your Time

  • “Armed Guards Aren’t the Answer” (Tablet)
  • Leila Mechoui on why screen-time limits may not significantly affect a child’s behavioral development. (Compact)
  • Eli Lake on why the Trump administration’s latest move against former FBI Director James Comey “has already backfired.” (The Free Press)
  • Mary Fitzgerald reports on rapid commercial development in downtown Cairo and concerns it may erase the area’s iconic history and culture. (Monocle)
  • Dan Schwarz analyzes whether prediction markets live up to their forecasting potential. (Asterisk Magazine)
  • Matthew Belloni interviews Lionsgate film chair Adam Fogelson about the studio’s Michael Jackson biopic Michael. (The Town)

Presented Without Comment

From Jerome Powell’s final press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve:

HOWARD SCHNEIDER, REUTERS: You mentioned that, staying on as Fed governor, you intend to keep a low profile. Could you give us a little more detail on what that looks like?

JEROME POWELL: ducks down

Also Presented Without Comment

OpenAI: Where the Goblins Came From

Starting with GPT‑5.1, our models began developing a curious habit: they increasingly used goblins, gremlins, and other mythical creatures in their metaphors. While a lone “little goblin” in an answer could be harmless or even charming, this pattern persisted across model generations, multiplying and prompting us to trace its origins.

Also Also Presented Without Comment

The Oregonian: AI Hallucinations Cost Lawyers $110,000 in Oregon Vineyard Lawsuit

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Pilar Marrero

Political reporting is approached with a strong interest in power, institutions, and the decisions that shape public life. Coverage focuses on U.S. and international politics, with clear, readable analysis of the events that influence the global conversation. Particular attention is given to the links between local developments and worldwide political shifts.