Global Sovereign Debt: Risks and Policy Solutions

April 28, 2026

Happy Friday! A Titanic display at an Illinois museum was submerged overnight on the 114th anniversary of the ship’s sinking.

Credit to the curators for the historical accuracy.

And if you haven’t had enough of The Dispatch this week, you can catch Steve Hayes on PBS News’ Washington Week tonight at 8 p.m. ET, David M. Drucker on MS Now’s The Weekend on Saturday at 8 a.m. ET, and Sarah Isgur on Fox News Sunday this Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. This week she also did all the podcasts and shows, including Interesting Times With Ross Douthat, Hugh Hewitt’s radio show, and The View.

Top Highlights: Today’s Main Stories

Russia Delivers the Year’s Deadliest Strike on Ukraine

Overnight, Russian missiles and drones targeted Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, resulting in at least 17 deaths in what Ukrainian officials labeled the year’s most lethal attack by Russia. Officials reported that a 12-year-old child was among the dead and that more than 100 people were wounded. Large fires erupted in Kyiv and in the southeastern city of Dnipro. The most severe damage occurred in the Black Sea port of Odesa, where officials confirmed at least eight fatalities. The assault involved nearly 700 drones and numerous missiles, with Ukrainian defenses intercepting 667 of 703 incoming threats. “Another night has proven that Russia does not deserve any easing of global policy or lifting of sanctions,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on social media.

  • Russian officials asserted that a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s energy infrastructure overnight killed two people, including a 14-year-old girl, and wounded seven others. The attack also ignited a sizable fire at the Tuapse oil terminal on the Black Sea coast.
  • On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. would not renew the sanctions waiver on Russian oil shipments granted last month, which had expired on Saturday.
  • Ukrainian intelligence officials warned that Russia was preparing to mobilize 20,000 reservists for an upcoming offensive aimed at capturing the entire Donbas region by September. Some 680,000 Russian soldiers are already in Ukraine.

Israel and Lebanon Reach a Ceasefire

President Donald Trump stated Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, following renewed full-scale clashes between Israel and Hezbollah last month. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was said to advocate for a ceasefire as a precondition for any further high-level talks with Israel; Trump also claimed in a separate Truth Social post that he would invite Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a White House meeting. The leaders of Lebanon and Israel have not met in person since 1983. Israeli forces are presently fighting Hezbollah militants rather than the Lebanese army. Hezbollah, in its response to the announcement, said that any ceasefire must be comprehensive across all Lebanese territory and must not permit the Israeli enemy any freedom of movement, declining to state whether it would honor the ceasefire. For more on Israel’s Lebanon campaign, consult the April 8 issue of TMD.

  • “We’re going to try to broker peace between Lebanon and Israel,” Trump told reporters, adding that Lebanon’s government would “take care of” Hezbollah, which has resisted disarmament among other Lebanese factions.
  • Netanyahu described the move as “an opportunity to realize a historic peace agreement” and later indicated that Israeli forces would stay in positions in southern Lebanon as part of a security zone.
  • In Lebanon on Wednesday, four paramedics were killed and six were wounded in what the country’s health ministry described as a double-tap strike by Israel, in which attackers wait for rescue crews to reach a site and then strike again.

U.S. Expands Vigilance in Iranian Blockade

The U.S. has turned back 13 ships since beginning its blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline, according to Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine. He added that the blockade applies to all vessels, irrespective of nationality, entering or leaving Iranian ports, and that no boarding actions have yet been required. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also warned that U.S. forces stand ready to renew strikes on Iran if the current ceasefire ends as scheduled on Tuesday. He warned that such actions could target Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure, a move that could be illegal under international and U.S. law.

  • Trump said on Thursday that peace talks with Iran could resume as soon as this weekend, claiming Iran had agreed to hand over “the nuclear dust”—about 970 pounds of enriched uranium believed to be located at Iranian facilities that were struck by the U.S. last year.
  • Iran has not confirmed whether Trump’s assertion is accurate.
  • A House vote to block further U.S. military action against Iran failed by one vote, 214-213. A similar measure failed in the Senate on Wednesday.

U.S. Signs Philippines Manufacturing Zone Agreement

The United States reached an agreement with the Philippines on Thursday to establish a manufacturing zone on Luzon, the country’s largest and most populated island, designed to grant American firms access to critical minerals beyond China’s reach. The 4,000-acre tract will be provided to the U.S. at no cost and managed as a special economic zone by the U.S. government. The zone will enjoy the same diplomatic immunities as a U.S. Embassy and will operate under U.S. common law, with a two-year lease renewable for 99 years. “You can’t build anything in Ohio if the minerals and process materials are controlled by an adversary who can cut you off tomorrow,” said Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Jacob Helberg. Details on participating companies and product plans remain to be decided.

  • The move aims to strengthen U.S.–Philippines ties, with the two nations set to participate in joint drills alongside forces from Japan, Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand in the coming weeks.
  • President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has pursued closer defense and security alignment with the United States, contrasting with his predecessor Duterte’s outreach to China.
  • Inside the Philippines, lawmakers have debated how conciliatory the nation should be toward China, a central issue in recent midterm elections.

China Presents Optimistic View on Growth

China’s economy appeared to grow faster than anticipated in the first quarter of the year, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting that quarterly GDP was about 5 percent higher than in Q1 2025. If this pace continued, the economy could be up roughly 5 percent by year’s end. The official brief noted improvements in retail sales and industrial output, but the housing market remained weak, with investment down 11.2 percent in Q1 2026. Analysts warn that higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict could dampen Chinese growth, as transport costs for exporters rise. Weaker export demand, driven by energy prices and ongoing tariff friction with the U.S., also poses risks. Many outside economists suspect China often inflates or misstates data to paint a rosier picture of the economy.

  • The Chinese government trimmed its growth target last month to a 4.5–5 percent range, its lowest since 1991.
  • A Stanford University report this week argued China had nearly caught up with the U.S. in artificial intelligence, citing improved benchmarks for AI models, China’s lead in AI research citations, and a slowdown in skilled tech worker migration to the U.S.
  • On Thursday, House Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar, a Michigan Republican, urged Congress to “pass legislation that will stop China’s multi-pronged effort to legally and illegally obtain America’s tech stack,” pointing to China’s attempts to smuggle advanced AI chips, acquire chipmaking technology, and engage in corporate espionage against U.S. AI firms.

Only four times in the last 50 years has the U.S. government ended a fiscal year with a budget surplus. And that surplus didn’t mean the government was financially healthy; it simply allowed it to reduce some of the national debt.

This year, American tax receipts will fall short of outlays for the 25th consecutive year. In the 2025 fiscal year, which ended on September 30 of last year, the government spent over $7 trillion but collected only $5.234 trillion, leaving a deficit of nearly $1.8 trillion. And the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections released in February show the shortfall widening to about $1.9 trillion in the current year and reaching roughly $3.1 trillion by 2036.

Rather than enacting policies to raise revenue or curb spending, the government has to borrow more by selling U.S. Treasury securities to buyers at home and abroad—individuals, corporations, central banks, and governments. Issuing T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds—the instruments for short-, medium-, and long-term debt—helps close the gap, but the debt compounds over decades.

As you read this, the national debt stands at roughly $39 trillion in owed obligations. Each second brings in about $60,000 more, and by the time you finish this sentence, the total will have risen by tens of millions; by tomorrow, it could be several billions higher.

The United States isn’t alone. Across advanced economies—the United Kingdom, France, Japan, Brazil—governments are seeing interest payments eat a larger slice of their budgets each year, a trend that IMF researchers say contributes to slower growth and sticky inflation.

Today’s Must-Read

In Other News

Today in America

  • Trump announced he will nominate his first-term deputy surgeon general, Erica Schwartz, to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Senate will need to confirm her appointment.
  • Trump also plans to nominate Cameron Hamilton to run the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Hamilton previously served as acting administrator of the agency until he was fired in May 2025.
  • Minnesota prosecutors charged an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent with two counts of assault, alleging that he pointed his firearm at two drivers while attempting to pass them on the shoulder of a highway in February.
  • The Trump-appointed members of the Commission of Fine Arts formally approved the president’s plans to build a triumphal arch in Washington, D.C.
  • The Justice Department launched an investigation into allegations of sexual assault committed by now-former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, who resigned on Tuesday. He is also under investigation in Los Angeles and New York.
  • Police conducted a bomb threat investigation at the home of Pope Leo XIV’s older brother, John Prevost, in New Lenox, Illinois. Officials concluded that the threat was “unsubstantiated and that no explosive devices or hazardous materials were present” at the home.

Around the World

  • The Treasury Department issued new sanctions on several people and entities involved in Nicaragua’s gold industry, including the two sons of Nicaraguan Co-Presidents Daniel Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, along with other senior government officials and companies.
  • Three armed men robbed a Crédit Agricole bank in the southern Italian city of Naples and held 25 people hostage for two hours before escaping through a hole in the floor to the underground sewers.
  • A South African court sentenced the country’s opposition leader, Julius Malema, to five years in jail for firing his gun in a stadium during a rally but allowed him to remain out of custody until his appeal is heard.
  • Ghana authorities rescued more than 300 West African civilians, including 113 children, from a human trafficking ring.
  • The Syrian government took control of all former U.S. military bases in the country on Thursday, completing a decade-long American withdrawal.
  • New reporting found that U.K. Foreign Office officials had rejected British vetting officials’ recommendation to block security clearance to Peter Mandelson—the former U.K. ambassador to the U.S. and friend of Jeffrey Epstein—before he took the position in February 2025.

On the Money

  • Netflix announced that its co-founder and executive chairman, Reed Hastings, will leave the company’s board in June when his term expires.
  • A White House memo reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the government is building up protections to potentially deploy Anthropic’s Mythos AI model—which has drawn cybersecurity concerns for its ability to identify software vulnerabilities—within federal agencies. Anthropic also unveiled its latest flagship consumer AI model, Claude Opus 4.7.
  • Spirit Airlines, which has filed for bankruptcy twice since November 2024, is expected to be liquidated as early as this week.
  • A Kenyan court ruled that 299 people can move forward with a class action lawsuit against the U.K.-based oil and gas company BP for allegedly contaminating drinking water in northern Kenya through improper disposal of toxic waste.
  • The National Basketball Association is reportedly in talks with private credit giants—including Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Sixth Street Partners—to help fund its planned expansion into Europe.

Worth Your Time

  • “Humans Are Losing the Fight Against Flying Fish” (Wall Street Journal)
  • Josef Palermo shares his account from working inside the Trump-run Kennedy Center. (The Atlantic)
  • Paul Niehaus explains the logic behind the nonprofit he co-founded, GiveDirectly, which gave cash transfers to low-income individuals without strings attached. (In Development)
  • Elena Saavedra Buckley on visiting a simulated environment of a Mars settlement in Utah. (Harper’s Magazine)
  • Daniel Lefferts on why a small, right-wing publisher, Passage Press, is reissuing The Hardy Boys mystery novels. (The New York Review of Books)
  • Out today: Lee Cronin’sThe Mummy and Mother Mary in theaters; Beef Season 2 on Netflix; Pragmata and Mouse: P.I. For Hire on PS5, Xbox, Switch 2, and PC; and new music from Owen Riegling, Jessie Ware, ZAYN, M.I.A., Vincent Neil Emerson, Dirk Powell, Andy Leftwich, and Yaya Bey, everywhere good music is found.

Presented Without Comment

The Independent: SantaCon Organizer Arrested As the Feds Label Popular Holiday Event a ‘Con’

Also Presented Without Comment

Local France: The Butler Did It: Elysee Worker Sentenced for Stealing Presidential Porcelain

Also Also Presented Without Comment

BBC: Chinese Carmaker Patents Voice-Controlled ‘In-Vehicle Toilet’

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Pilar Marrero

Political reporting is approached with a strong interest in power, institutions, and the decisions that shape public life. Coverage focuses on U.S. and international politics, with clear, readable analysis of the events that influence the global conversation. Particular attention is given to the links between local developments and worldwide political shifts.